Quick game.

9 posts in this topic

Posted

negative infinty.

 

Seriously, though, 77.

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Posted

66

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Posted

Wait!! I forgot to say for you to PM me your answers. But you've gone and posted them in the thread already, so we'll count those as your final answers. People have to vote with what they think will eventually become 2 thirds of the average. So I'll let your votes be a basis for everybody else to make their votes on.

 

If you want to send in an answer, PM me here. Don't vote in the thread.

http://www.hyrule.net/forum/index.php?app=members&module=messaging&section=send&do=form&fromMemberID=6545

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Posted

To reiterate, the goal of this game was to predict what two thirds of the average number would be. The average was the average of all the numbers chosen. You would have to predict how everyone else would choose (ideally based on Silver and Ammonsa's votes as a basis for how everyone else might choose to vote). Again, without any payoff, it's hard to get people to take interest. But whatever? The reward will be 10 of my rupees.

 

After Ammonsa and Silver's votes were placed, I made my own prediction. I hadn't got any more votes at that time.

 

The average, out of 8 votes (Silver, Ammonsa, Teto, Dark One, Cirt, Sayuri, Sahaqiel, Pheo) was... 30.

 

 

In descending order:
  • Silver: 77
  • Ammonsa: 66
  • Pheo: 56
  • Sayuri: 50
  • Sahaqiel: 37
  • Teto: 32
  • Dark One: 25
  • Cirt: 18

And so it was that I was the victor. I win nothing, and neither does anyone else.

I saw a talk that featured this game, and went over briefly the kind of vote patterns they expect to see. I just wanted to see how it went here, though again without any payoff, you wont try that hard. I ended up winning, but just by chance, since the votes didn't go the way they do in more motivated groups of people. Not that I'm berating you though (!!!)

 

I would fail miserably at describing what this game is all about and why I decided to stage it today, so here's the Wikipedia page and the Ted.com video I got it from.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guess_2/3_of_the_average

http://www.ted.com/talks/colin_camerer_neuroscience_game_theory_monkeys.html

 

It's about game theory basically. Which is what Minority Rule is; you try to get into the head of your opponent, figure out their line of thinking, and go from there to decide how you should vote. Liar Game is basically loaded with game theory I now realise. It was this similarity that made me want to look into it today.

 

Yale have this thing where they recorded a bunch of their lectures and posted them online. They did the Game Theory class in 2007, and I started watching that today. So, if you're interested: http://oyc.yale.edu/economics/econ-159



Lastly: Thanks for participating <:

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Posted

Oh, I wasn't quite paying attention to what i was guessing. 18 is my favorite number lol

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Posted

Silver, 77 isn't even possible in this scenario :/

Also, same with 66. 66 is 2/3 of 100, so everyone would have to pick 100, but the mere inclusion of a 66 rules it out, unless there are so many 100s that the 66 isn't relevant anymore in the outcome

 

I like numbers and puzzles about them :D

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Posted

here's a hint i wasn't trying

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Posted

I slept through the entire duration of this game )o: so gutted. it looked like the kind of pointless fun I'd enjoy

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